Books & Further Reading

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction - Masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament.

Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk - A comprehensive history of man's efforts to understand risk and probability, from ancient gamblers in Greece to modern chaos theory.

Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman - A study of how and why people make decisions based on certain scenarios & one of the bases for behavioral economics

If Humility Is So Important, Why Are Leaders So Arrogant?

Are Professional Forecasters Overconfident? 

Intellectual humility: the importance of knowing you might be wrong

Why Facts Don’t Change Our Minds

The Undoing Project by Michael Lewis - The creation of behavioral economics based on the work of Kahneman and Amos Tversky

Center for Applied Rationality Handbook

Rich guys are most likely to have no idea what they’re talking about, study suggests

To Win a Sports Bet, Don't Think Too Much

How to Make a Big Decision -Have no fear. An emerging science can now help you choose.

Optimal Stopping - How to find the perfect apartment, partner, and parking spot

How to Beat Decision Fatigue: The Ultimate Guide

A Betting Man With a Plan for America